Last stop Eternal City Page 2
«We need more data. We need to know precisely on which orbit is travelling that son of a b…» he had almost forgotten the presence of Lisa, who pretended nothing happened. After mumbling, almost to himself, some apologies, Robert started explaining what he had in mind.
«We need observation data from western emplacements. The object must already be over the horizon, but they should have had the time to coordinate. Let’s try with India. While I try to contact the IAO [5] control center in Bangalore – there is an Australian, a guy I know, who is doing his PhD there – you get on the phone and call the people that work with the Sentry in JPL and the ones of the NEODyS in Pisa [6]. If they curse you, mention my name. I don’t guarantee it will work, but at least you’ll get the time to explain what’s going on. We’ll meet here in half an hour for the updates.»
While Simon rushed in his office and started feverishly retrieving the phone numbers he needed, Robert was already talking with Bangalore. It took ten minutes to talk with whoever was using the Chandra that night, but in the end he managed to do it. Like a lawyer at his closing argument, Robert was trying to make his request as dramatic as possible. To be honest, however, the more he talked, the more he realized that keeping a catastrophic tone was not difficult at all. And this realization made him even more worried. Luckily, the unknown interlocutor on the other side of the phone came across as a really understanding and helpful person: he didn’t even need to refer to the Australian PhD… Once the situation had been clarified, Robert sent the object’s coordinates acquired in Perth, recommending them to make some observations in the surronding area as well.
The motion on the sky was pretty evident and a two hours distance could have a certain importance. They agreed to analyze the collected images both with the official software used by the Indian Institute of Astrophysics and with Simon’s one. After closing the conversation, Lisa glimpsed at Robert. «Sure it is a mess. It is exactly one of those things that you always wished you hadn’t to discover…» the astronomer commented fidgeting with the now empty coffee cup.
«The worst part is that you feel that your hands are tied. If the spirits that woke up this night aren’t going to melt in the light of the Sun, there may be the risk for someone of not seeing another day» Robert told her standing from his chair and going towards the window to observe the wonderful triumph of colours that the warm fall was painting between the trees and the hills. That engrossed contemplation was interruped by Simon’s return.
«I had some problems, due to the time zones, to contact the people from Pisa. But I succedeed and they immediately put the data inside the program. To be honest, when they saw that the time distance of the observations was so small they didn’t even want to try, but the guy – I already forgot his name – told me he met you a couple of years ago at a convention and you didn’t seem a hothead. Well, the important thing is that the orbit simulator is working on those data. I had less problem with the Sentry guys. Maybe even because, while we were talking, they could see in real time the weird simulation that had been implemented in Pisa. Anyway, both said that in ten minutes something could arrive.»
«Good.» Robert told him with a small smile. It was clear, however, that there was something on his craw and he was looking for the better words to approach the subject. He took a big breath and started: «You see, Simon, there’s something I have to say to you. This morning, while I waiting for you and the second confirmation from Perth, I tried to do some calculations. There’s no guarantee on the results – as you know the data is still too small – but I tried anyway. I wanted to try to recreate the size of the possible asteroid that you discovered – by the way, congratulations, even though I don’t think you will be happy about putting this discovery in your resumé. Using the measurements of its brightness magnitude, I tried to see what could come up. As you know knots are its distance and its albedo…»
«Ah, the measure unit of light reflection.» interrupted Lisa «I remember when, as student, I was studying for the planetary science exam. It actually went pretty well, but since then, I never used what I studied for that exam. I devoted myself to the stars.»
«Exactly that. Of a newly discovered asteroid we don’t know basically anything, even less its surface composition. Then, I made some guesses. Believing it is an highly metallic object and taking as valid the distance we found by triangulating our data with the preliminar ones from Perth…»
The displeasure grimace on Simon’s face forced Robert to a kind of explanation: «You have to right reasons to sneer, we both know that there is the actual risk of our hypothesis to be just garbage. To put it bluntly, I would never think of publishing these results, not even on a gossip magazine. But let me finish. So, taking as valid that distance and that composition, we have an object of one hundred meters. But, if we suppose that it is a darker asteroid, for example an inactive comet nucleus, the size grows a lot. In short: in both cases the atmosphere couldn’t neutralize its descent towards the Earth…»
«And so?» asked Lisa that was getting involved in the problem.
«So it’s a really bad situation…» this time Robert was interrupted by the ringtone of the computer signaling an incoming message. «It’s Bangalore» Robert said opening the mail «They confirm the presence of the object. The movement based on the coordinated I sent him seems to show that it is not so far from the Earth. According to their orbit software – ignoring the large approximations given by the small time of observation – the maximum approach point could occur in less than ten hours. I immediately transmit the new coordinates to Pisa and JPL and let’s hear what they say.»
In a couple of seconds the IAO data were travelling with the highest priority towards Italy and Arizona. Destination: NEODyS and Sentry. Robert gave a last look to his watch: 8:40. Three hours from Simon’s first call have passed, and yet it looked like it had just happened. In almost forty years of working, that was the first time he was actually feeling anxious. It really was a bad situation.
«I think it’s time to alert the Minor Planet Center» said Simon loudly. Without waiting for Robert’s approval, Simon was already typing on his boss computer keyboard to write a mail for Timothy Spahr.
Notes
[1] AAT – Anglo-Australian Telescope. Built in 1974, it was one of the last telescopes of the four meters class to be equipped with the equatorial mount. Continuosly updated and reinforced, in the begging of the 2000s it resulted to be the most productive of the telescopes of his class. In 2009 it placed fifth in the special classification that considers the scientific impact of optical telescopes all around the world.
[2] This term indicates the “following” observations of an asteroid to measure with the maximal precision its path on the sky. Thanks to this data it will be possible to recreate the object’s orbit. In this fundamental phase of astronomical research a key part is constituted by many groups of amateur astronomers (even in Italy!).
[3] The Minor Planet Center (MPC) is an Institute that relies on the International Astronomical Union and that deals specifically with minor objects in the Solar System. It works at the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO) in Cambridge, Massachussetts.
[4] NEA – Acronym for Near Earth Asteroid, a class of objects whose orbits take them to get close – and sometimes intersect – out planet’s orbit.
[5] IAO – Indian Astronomical Observatory. Built at 4500 meters above sea level in the himalayan region of Ladakh, the observatory houses an optical infrared telescope of two meters – the Himalayan Chandra Telescope – that is remotely controlled thanks to a dedicated satellite run from the Indian Institute of Astrophysics in Bangalore.
[6] Sentry and NEODyS are two indipendent, but communicating, programs that deal with the potential danger for out planet of a celestial body. They work at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory and at the University of Pisa. From 2011 the maintenance of NEODyS service is in custody of Space DyS, a company born as spin-off of the Celestial Mechanics Group of the University of Pisa.
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Chapter 3
Collision Course!
Minor Planet Center - Cambridge, Massachusetts - 6:42 P.M.
In Cambridge it was late afternoon. Timothy stayed behind at work to read the last mails with the follow-up signals of an asteroid that in those days was having a discreet priority. It was absolutely harmless for the planet, but there was the suspect that it could be a rediscovery, that is, an asteroid identified ten years before of which they lost track. The mail from Australia caught him almost by surprise: he thought there weren’t observations sessions planned for that night. Even more, he was floored by the “absolute priority” that marked out the mail.
He opened the message immediately: no pleasantries and a few lines of meagre explanations – Simon wasn’t much of a communicator – that introduced a couple of attachments, one with the first shots taken in Coonabarabran and the other with astrometric data collected with the observations in Siding Spring, Perth and at the himalayan indian telescope. «Pretty unusual procedure…» said Timothy quietly while he was loading data in the sophisticated orbit reconstruction program used at MPC. The thing that surprised him the most was how a veteran like Rob acted like a newcomer at his first discovery. It was then, while he was waiting the handful of seconds that the software needed to digest the data, that arrived, almost simultaneously, a mail from JPL and one from the University of Pisa. Timothy recognized the senders right away. What the hell could the guys from Sentry and NEODyS want? After a quick calculation, in Italy it had to be about midnight. A truly unsual time for an operator to work directly and in such an urgent way on orbits simulation.
The Minor Planet Center at Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics in Cambridge, Massachusets (United States)
As he opened the JPL mail, arrived the notice that the software had finished processing. He set aside the mail and immediately jumped to the final conclusions of the elaboration. He was very aware that, before those, the program had reported the data shortage and the lack of temporal covering to accentuate the possibility that the result could have been completely unreliable. What interested him the most, though, was to understand why Rob had stressed so much that new asteroid that had condescended to appear in the South Wales sky. He didn’t like what he read. The bright red writing “impact risk” that was flashing on the screen was not reassuring at all. The problem was that, even though he kept telling himself “keep calm, data are scarce, it’s soon to jump to conclusion”, with just a glance at that warning he would stress out even more.
Almost to forget about it, Timothy returned to the JPL mail. In that moment the real reason for Rob’s anxiety was perfectly clear. He opened also the mail from Pisa: it was exactly the same verdict. Both softwares indicated that in the simulations done by integrating also the data from India, the odds of collision with the unknown object had increased. As if they were written from the same person, both mails asked for absolute secrecy: the data did not guarantee the required precision, hence it was still premature to alert the International Astronomic Union and the COPUOS, the United Nations organization appointed to space problems – including which, of course, even the one about impact risks. The situation was still to be considered with the utmost urgency.
«You have to see something…» said Timothy to Gareth Williams, seated in front of his computer on the other side of the office. «But maybe it’s better if you sit down.»
«Damn…!» the swear word came out so fast that Gareth couldn’t stop it «Oops, sorry. It’s a big mess: we have to collect as many data as possible. If NEODyS and Sentry are right we have about eight hours left. We will alert immediately all those that can observe and we keep our fingers crossed. I go straight to work. By the way, what acronym do I use to indicate the object?»
«I don’t want it to be confused with an usual object. Therefore, no official acronym. We will think about it when the problem will be solved and – correct me if I’m wrong – it should be HH19. I suggest we use a code name. According to what I’ve felt these last five minutes, the most suitable name that I can think of is Metus. He’s the latin god of Fear. What do you say?»
«Yes, the acronym is correct, but I agree with you on the choice of a code name. It’s an unusual procedure for us, but the situation is unusual too. Let’s go with Metus then. You know that classical mithology is not my field. I feel good between bit and bytes. I get to my computer and I send a maximum priority communication to all the observers who can help us. Let’s hope this time the clouds will let us work.»
«More importantly, let’s hope the Sun will let us observe…» Timothy specified. While Gareth sent out the communication hightlighting the absolute priority, Timothy sat at his desk and launched the video calling program. He needed to speak with Rob and with everyone else that, with him, had found this hot potato. After a few moment of waiting Robert’s worried face peeped out.
«A great way to end my work day in the office…» blurted out Timothy trying to play it down.
«Don’t tell me» answered Robert immediately «I should be home resting now. Instead I am at work chasing terrible ghosts. By the way, here’s the responsible of everything: Simon Feestair, our computer systems expert…» he gestured towards Simon, who placed at his side.
«Good morning, Doctor Spahr. It’s really a bad situation for us to meet…»
«To be honest, I would have preferred to have a peaceful chat at the next Congress. Rob told me about your new software and both me and Gareth were really eager to see it at work. Anyway, if this is the result, we have to acknowledge that you did a great job. But let’s get to the point. Rob, what do you think about this situation and what do you suggest we should do?»
«I am really worried. It never happened that the simulations have had so few doubts despite the small data coverage. My idea is that the data are good and that we are facing a big trouble. I see Gareth in the back pounding with his usual extraterrestrial speed on the keys of his inseparable computer, I guess he’s sending out the alert news. We need as many data as possible. My software – and the one of the Indian Institute of Astrophysics as well – indicate that we have just a few hours left. It’s mandatory that we think of something that can give us more data accuracy. In your region the object should be over the horizon for a little while yet. Have you tried calling Goldstone and Arecibo to set up a radar observation?»
«Actually we don’t have much time. I thought about the radar as well, but I know the alert time and the preparation for the observation session are at least of a couple hours. This would take Metus to disappear under the horizon. By the way, leaving the usual procedure aside, Gareth and me have decided to give the asteroid the temporary name Metus. Because of what it’s doing to us…»
Lisa joined the conversation too. «Metus, the roman god of Fear. Spot-on choice. Good afternoon, doctor Spahr. I’m Lisa Kewley, I work with star formation and I got involved in this affair by accident. It was enough to let Robert use a bit of my observing time with the AAT. Speaking of the radar. Is it possible that the trick works only with Goldstone and Arecibo?»
«Indeed a few years ago we tried also with other stationings. If I remember correctly the period, at the end of 2001 we observed the Golevka asteroid using the 70 meters antenna of Evpatoria in Crimea to send the signal and the italian station of Medicina, near Bologna, to receive the echo of it. The experiment gave great results [1], but I don’t think it was repeated in other occasions. You should know about it, doctor Kewley.»
«Yes. However I believe that in a situation such as this one, it would be irresponsible not to try to facilitate as much as possible the data collection…»
With the risk of looking rude, Robert interrupted Lisa’s considerations: «Sorry. I did the math and I think in Italy is around midnight. I would try to call an astronomer of Turin Observatory whom I worked with some years ago. I would pass to him the task of getting in touch with the managers of Medicina and of convincing them that
is fundamental to get radar data on – how did you call it? – ah, Metus. In the meantime we should look for the possible ways to do the same thing for the Crimea radar. Offhand I can’t think of anyone there, but I believe we can manage to find someone. And if we are desperate, we’ll look for a scrap of a phone number and we’ll call it. There will be someone that speaks a bit of English. If everything goes well, the two observatories will have at least three or four hours to fit the signals and prepare everything. What do you say, Timothy?»
«Great suggestion. The times are really tight, but it’s worth trying anyway. Even Gareth agreed and maybe he knows how to get to Evpatoria. Make that call to Turin now, Rob, and then see if you can all rest for a couple of hours. The night has been pretty heavy, but the next day could be even worse. From my part, I will get in touch with the NEODyS in Pisa. Time is running out and the radar data must be inserted in the orbits software as soon as possible. I thought the communication between Bologna and Pisa could be more efficient and rapid. The the NEODyS will send the data to Sentry for a cross check. It’s essential to know if Metus’ stop will be just a courtesy visit or the end of its orbit. We’ll catch up later.»
Notes
[1] Di Martino M. et al. - Results of the first Italian planetary radar experiment - Planetary and Space Science 52, 325-330; 2004